The Last Vote: America on the Brink of Oligarchic Rule
When Donald Trump emerged as a political force in 2016, his brand was built on two powerful promises: to ‘Make America Great Again and to drain the swamp of elite corruption in Washington. Yet, as the years passed, the very forces of wealth and power he vowed to dismantle became his most steadfast allies. Trump’s recent re-election victory and now imminent second presidency offers a window into a troubling trend: the consolidation of oligarchic power in American politics, drawing parallels to other nations' experiences with oligarchy, such as Boris Yeltsin’s Russia.
The Rise of Oligarchs: Lessons from Yeltsin’s Russia
In the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse, Boris Yeltsin presided over Russia's chaotic transition to capitalism. During this period, oligarchs rose to prominence by acquiring vast state assets at fire-sale prices through rigged privatization schemes. These wealthy individuals wielded outsized influence over politics and the economy, effectively running the show while Yeltsin struggled to maintain stability. The result was a government that became increasingly dependent on these powerful elites for support, funding, and media control (Gill, 2003).
While the oligarchs grew fat and bloated from their pampered, lavish lifestyles, shielded by their connections to the government, ordinary Russians suffered immeasurably. The Russian state, hollowed out by corruption and mismanagement, could no longer provide basic services to its people. Poverty soared, healthcare systems crumbled, and life expectancy plummeted (Dawisha, 2014). Meanwhile, the oligarchs indulged in opulent mansions, yachts, and private jets, a grotesque display of excess that stood in stark contrast to the dire realities faced by millions of citizens. The suffering of the people became collateral damage in the pursuit of wealth and power.
Yeltsin’s tenure exemplified how weak governance could enable an oligarchic system to flourish. Instead of reining in their power, Yeltsin relied on these figures to prop up his administration, trading political favours for loyalty. This dynamic allowed the oligarchs to shape policy to their benefit, further entrenching economic inequality and eroding public trust in democratic institutions (Sakwa, 2013).
Trump’s Oligarchic Court
Trump’s political orbit bears striking resemblances to Yeltsin’s Russia, but his second term is poised to be even more entrenched in oligarchic influence than his first administration (2016–2020). During that period, his cabinet featured billionaires, corporate executives, and industry lobbyists, including figures like Betsy DeVos, Steven Mnuchin, and Wilbur Ross, who wielded significant influence over public policy to benefit their own interests (Phillips, 2018).
In Trump’s imminent second administration, these trends have deepened. Figures like Elon Musk, whose prominence in business and cultural discourse has grown, has been given an influential role, charged with cutting state budgets. Musk, a staunch supporter of deregulation and limited government intervention, exemplifies the oligarchic influence Trump has courted. His alignment with MAGA rhetoric, coupled with his control over key platforms like X (formerly Twitter), ensures his voice remains central to shaping public opinion (Phillips, 2022).
Trump’s refusal to divest from his business empire continues to blur the line between personal wealth and public office. Policies like corporate tax cuts and deregulation have disproportionately benefited the wealthy, creating further opportunities for elite players to profit under his administration. This has deepened economic inequality and risks alienating segments of his working-class base, despite his populist rhetoric (Tax Policy Center, 2017).
Populist Rhetoric, Elite Reality
One of the starkest parallels between Trump and Yeltsin lies in their use of populist rhetoric to mask oligarchic consolidation. Yeltsin portrayed himself as a reformer bringing democracy to Russia, even as his reliance on oligarchs undermined those ideals (Dawisha, 2014). Similarly, Trump’s MAGA movement positions itself as a revolt against elites, despite his administration’s prioritization of tax cuts for corporations and policies that favoured billionaires.
This contradiction—rallying working-class support while empowering the elite—is central to both leaders’ political strategies. It fosters a sense of loyalty among their base, shielding them from scrutiny over their alliances with oligarchic power.
Media and Messaging
Control of media narratives played a central role in both Yeltsin’s and Trump’s political strategies. In Russia, oligarchs owned major media outlets, shaping public opinion to support Yeltsin’s administration. Similarly, Trump’s influence over right-wing outlets like Fox News, Newsmax, and Elon Musk’s X creates a similar dynamic. His attacks on ‘fake news’ have further undermined trust in independent journalism, allowing his narratives to dominate (Phillips, 2018).
Social media has amplified Trump’s ability to bypass traditional media altogether and enable him to speak directly to his supporters, fostering a sense of unmediated connection. This mirrors how Yeltsin relied on oligarch-controlled media to bolster his image and suppress dissent. In Trump’s second term, figures like Musk, with his platform X, are positioned to further amplify this trend, merging corporate and political power in unprecedented ways (Phillips, 2022).
The Danger of Oligarchic Democracy
Both Trump and Yeltsin illustrate how concentrated wealth and influence can erode democratic institutions. In Russia, oligarchic power weakened checks and balances, paving the way for Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian consolidation (Gill, 2003). While the United States has stronger democratic safeguards, Trump’s presidency revealed vulnerabilities. His attacks on the judiciary, refusal to concede the 2020 election, and efforts to overturn its results exposed how concentrated power can destabilize democratic norms (Snyder, 2017).
When wealth and influence are concentrated in the hands of a few, policy risks being shaped by private gain rather than public interest. This erosion of trust in democratic institutions fosters disillusionment, creating fertile ground for authoritarian tendencies.
Balancing Oligarchs and the MAGA Base
Trump’s challenge in his second term will be managing the increasingly visible tension between the interests of his oligarchic allies and the expectations of his predominantly working-class MAGA base. The oligarchs who surround him—figures like Musk and Peter Thiel—are driven by a desire for deregulation, reduced taxes, and policies that prioritize economic elite interests. Conversely, Trump’s base, built on promises of economic revival and empowerment, demands solutions to stagnating wages, deindustrialization, and a sense of cultural disenfranchisement.
The question remains whether Trump can balance these competing forces. For now, his populist rhetoric continues to mask the contradictions between his actions and his base’s expectations. Recently, a split has emerged within Trump’s base between the MAGA grassroots and the so-called 'Tech Bros.' The MAGA faction has increasingly likened the Tech Bros to the elites Trump once promised to ‘drain the swamp' of. Once-prominent MAGA figures like Steve Bannon have gone further, accusing individuals like Elon Musk and other tech leaders of deliberately harming American workers. A recent debate over H-1B visas brought this rift to the forefront, with Trump siding with Musk in favour of expanding such visas. This stance further enraged Bannon and alienated some grassroots supporters, who view it as a betrayal of Trump’s promises to prioritize American jobs. However, as economic inequality deepens under policies favouring oligarchs, the risk of alienating his core supporters grows. The future of Trump’s America may depend on whether these fractures can be managed—or whether they will ultimately break the coalition that brought him to power.
What Comes Next for American Society?
The consolidation of oligarchic power under Trump’s leadership poses the most profound questions for American democracy, echoing the trajectory of Yeltsin’s Russia. Just as Yeltsin’s reliance on oligarchs eroded the Russian state’s ability to serve its people, Trump’s willingness to cede power to American oligarchs threatens to hollow out the democratic institutions that once defined the nation.
In his second term, Trump is unlikely to face the constraints that tempered some of his actions during his first administration. With fewer checks on his power and a deeper entrenchment of oligarchic interests, the risks to American democracy are significantly heightened. The intertwining of corporate and political interests undermines the principles of accountability and equity, creating an environment where elections could gradually lose their integrity and become spectacles rather than genuine expressions of the people’s will—much like in Russia. After Yeltsin, Russia fell under the grip of Vladimir Putin, and meaningful elections ceased to exist. The consequences of this transition were catastrophic for Russian democracy and society. With oligarchs firmly entrenched, the state became a vessel for their enrichment, while the Russian people were denied any chance to hold their leaders accountable. The weight of this consequence cannot be overstated: what began as a period of flawed democratic governance devolved into a system where elections became mere spectacles, masking the authoritarian consolidation of power. The United States now teeters on a similar precipice, where Trump’s second term could pave the way for a future devoid of true democratic choice.
What comes next for America when Trump’s term comes to an end? Historian Timothy Snyder warns that democratic freedoms can be lost without citizens realizing it, likening voting to love: "You never know when you make love for the last time, until it is the last time" (Snyder, 2017). The Russians who voted in 1991 did not know that would be their last meaningful vote. Likewise, Americans today may not grasp that the 2024 election that returned Trump to power could be the last truly democratic one. The erosion of trust and institutional integrity has already begun, and the consolidation of power by oligarchs under Trump raises the spectre of a future where elections are merely performative, serving to legitimize entrenched power rather than offering meaningful choice (Snyder, 2017).
The future of the republic hangs in the balance, as the United States stands at a critical juncture: to either reclaim its democratic foundations or succumb to an irreversible descent into oligarchic rule. If the consolidation of power under Trump continues unchecked, America risks following the grim trajectory of Yeltsin’s Russia, where elections devolved into hollow performances for the public, their outcomes predetermined to sustain an elite-driven system of governance. Democracy, as Americans know it, could become a relic of the past—a distant memory in a nation where the will of the people is silenced under the weight of unchecked wealth and influence.
References
Dawisha, K. (2014). Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? New York: Simon & Schuster.
Gill, G. (2003). The Nature and Development of the Modern Russian State. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Phillips, K. (2018). "The American Oligarchy: How Billionaires Bought Our Democracy." The Nation, 3 May. Available at: https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/american-oligarchy-billionaires-democracy/.
Phillips, K. (2022). Tech Titans and the MAGA Divide: America's New Oligarchy. New York: Beacon Press.
Sakwa, R. (2013). The Crisis of Russian Democracy: The Dual State, Factionalism and the Medvedev Succession. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Snyder, T. (2017). On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century. New York: Tim Duggan Books.
Tax Policy Center. (2017). "Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act." Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Available at: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/full.
The Guardian. (2025). "Elon Musk and Donald Trump: The Oligarchic Alliance Shaping America." The Guardian, 1 January. Available at: [https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/elon-musk-donald-trump].