Divided States, Part 2
What Comes Next If Trump Wins?
This is the follow-up to Divided States, Part 1, where we explored the possible aftermath of a Trump defeat—how the fractures he deepened might lead to a reckoning for the United States. But what if he wins? What if Trump returns to the White House, not as a disruptor but as a figure determined to cement the changes he brought? This time, the consequences could be even more severe, not just for the US, but for the entire world.
The Return of Chaos
A second Trump victory wouldn’t be a return to the surprise of 2016; it would be something far more dangerous—a validation. It would signal that the politics of division and grievance that fuelled his rise have not only endured but have now become embedded in the American political landscape. For Trump’s base, it would affirm the belief that the system has always been rigged against them, but this time they’ve taken it back. For his opponents, it would shatter any remaining hope that the political pendulum might swing back toward normalcy (Smith, 2024).
In Divided States, Part 1, we discussed how a Trump defeat could lead to a political explosion, with the far-right questioning the legitimacy of elections. A Trump victory, on the other hand, would set off a different chain of events, a more organized and methodical erosion of the institutions meant to uphold democracy. He would return to office with fewer checks on his power, armed with the knowledge of how to manipulate the system further. This time, there would be no need to feign surprise or navigate political norms; they would be swept aside entirely (Brown, 2023).
NATO in the Crosshairs
One of the most immediate global consequences of a second Trump presidency would be the future of NATO. In his first term, Trump made no secret of his disdain for the alliance, repeatedly calling it "obsolete" and threatening to withdraw the US from its obligations. If Trump reclaims the Oval Office, the likelihood of the US leaving NATO becomes very real, and with it, a seismic shift in global security (Miller, 2024).
For Europe, especially the eastern countries facing an increasingly aggressive Russia, this would be a catastrophe. NATO has long been the bedrock of European defence, and without the US, its ability to deter threats would be severely compromised. Russia, emboldened by the withdrawal of America’s protective umbrella, could act more aggressively, knowing that Europe alone may not be able to mount a credible defence. For the UK, already grappling with post-Brexit instability, the collapse of the NATO alliance would leave us more vulnerable than ever, scrambling to find new security partners in a rapidly destabilizing world.
The geopolitical fallout wouldn’t stop in Europe. Across the globe, authoritarian regimes would see Trump’s victory and NATO’s collapse as a green light to expand their influence. China, in particular, could take advantage of a weakened West to assert dominance in Asia, while other regions, once considered secure, could become battlefields for new proxy wars (Johnson, 2024).
The Breakdown of Democracy
Domestically, the consequences of a Trump win could be even more profound. His return would mark a formal shift away from the democratic norms that have underpinned the US since its founding. In his first term, Trump attacked institutions—Congress, the judiciary, and the press—attempting to consolidate power in the executive branch. In his second term, these attacks would escalate. Without the need to seek re-election, Trump would have no reason to hold back, and the dismantling of American democracy could become a full-blown reality (Foster, 2024).
The courts, already shifted rightward by his first term, would continue to move further toward extreme conservatism, shaping American law for generations. The overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, a landmark moment in the erosion of reproductive rights, has already left the country deeply polarized. Any serious debate about restoring those rights or even discussing comprehensive reproductive legislation will likely be silenced under a second Trump administration. With the courts stacked in his favour, and with state-level restrictions becoming more draconian, there may be no room for meaningful political discourse on the issue until Trump’s reign ends—if it ever ends (Carter, 2024).
Civil rights, voting rights, and environmental protections would all face similar threats. The legal framework, reshaped by Trump’s judicial appointments, would continue to narrow avenues for progress, potentially locking in policies that could last for decades.
But perhaps the most dangerous development would be the continued erosion of trust in elections. Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud in 2020 have already left a deep scar on the American psyche, with millions of his supporters still convinced that the system is rigged. If Trump wins again, it will seem like retribution for the years that Biden was President.
This raises an unsettling question: what do meaningful elections mean for America’s future? Would elections continue to happen, or would they become mere formalities, a simulacrum of democracy, much like we see in Russia? Vladimir Putin, after all, holds elections, but they serve as little more than rituals designed to legitimize his rule. Could America, under Trump, take a similar path? With key institutions eroded, and trust in elections already at a breaking point, the idea that Trump could stay in power indefinitely doesn’t feel entirely far-fetched. The notion of term limits might no longer be an absolute (Stevens, 2024).
If Trump can convince enough of his base, and even a portion of Congress, that elections are meaningless, he could remain in office in the guise of a democratic leader, much like other modern autocrats. Elections might still happen, but they would no longer hold the weight of real democratic choice. The peaceful transition of power—a hallmark of American democracy—could become a relic of the past.
The Authoritarian Playbook
In Divided States, Part 1, we examined the potential for an authoritarian drift if Trump loses, with the far-right becoming more emboldened in their attacks on the system. If Trump wins, this drift could become a lurch. We would likely see an even greater centralization of power in the executive branch, with more orders bypassing Congress, and a judiciary that rubber-stamps Trump’s policies. The US would edge closer to the kind of authoritarianism seen in countries like Hungary and Turkey, where democratic institutions still exist on paper but have been significantly compromised (White, 2024).
For Trump’s supporters, this would feel like vindication—a long-overdue correction to the perceived wrongs of the establishment. For his opponents, it would feel like the final nail in the coffin of American democracy.
The playbook has already been written, and Trump is not alone in using it. We’ve seen similar patterns emerge across the globe—leaders who undermine the press, attack the judiciary and concentrate power under the guise of protecting the "real" citizens. What starts as populism often ends in authoritarianism, and the US would be no exception.
The Global Fallout
A second Trump term would not just reshape the US—it would send shockwaves across the globe. Just as his first presidency emboldened populist movements in Europe and beyond, his return to power would invigorate far-right groups and authoritarian leaders around the world. The politics of division would gain new momentum, with leaders using Trump’s victory as a template for their own strategies.
For the UK, already struggling to find its place in a post-Brexit world, the consequences could be far-reaching. Prime Minister Keir Starmer might face a series of difficult decisions. Would he scramble to realign Britain more closely with Europe, reigniting the old wounds of Brexit? Such a move would likely inflame tensions within the country, reopening bitter divisions between those who wanted closer ties with the continent and those still championing ‘taking back control.’ Labour’s base is split on Europe, and any attempt by Starmer to reconnect with the EU would risk a backlash from parts of the electorate that are still deeply skeptical of Brussels. Yet, aligning more closely with Europe may be his only way to counterbalance a more isolationist US under Trump (Johnson, 2024).
To complicate matters further, relations between Trump’s team and Starmer have already soured. In October 2024, Trump’s team accused the Labour Party of interference in US politics, a baseless claim made in a highly publicized statement. While Trump himself has not commented directly on the matter, the accusation has heightened tensions between the two sides and casts a shadow over future diplomatic negotiations. For Starmer, this adds an extra layer of difficulty in trying to navigate the potential consequences of a second Trump presidency (BBC News, 2024).
On the other hand, a Trump win could push Starmer in a different direction, forcing him to try to get on the good side of an emboldened and powerful President. This might mean making concessions that would be politically unthinkable under normal circumstances, such as opening the British state even further to US interests, particularly when it comes to public services like the NHS. A post-Brexit UK, cut off from the European single market and desperate for trade deals, might see its already-strained public institutions as bargaining chips in negotiations with a second-term Trump administration.
The NHS, long protected from American-style privatisation, could become a target. Trump’s administration has always had its eye on potential trade agreements that open up public services, and a vulnerable UK might feel pressured to make those concessions in return for a favourable deal. This would be a dangerous path for Starmer, though. Labour, traditionally the protector of the NHS, would face outrage from its core supporters if it appeared to sell off parts of the health service in exchange for maintaining close ties with the Trump-led US. But then, Starmer is no traditional Labour leader, so this might not bother him as much as it might other, more customary Labour leaders.
At the same time, Nigel Farage, a close friend and ally of Trump, could find himself further emboldened by Trump’s victory. Sensing blood and opportunity in the UK Parliament, Farage would likely see this as the moment to ramp up his challenges to the political establishment. Trump’s victory could bring Farage and the Reform Party the momentum they need to push further right and tap into public dissatisfaction. With Trump promising favourable trade deals and political support should Farage become Prime Minister, the transatlantic populist alliance would only grow stronger.
A Crossroads
As we saw in Divided States, Part 1, America stands at a crossroads. If Trump loses, the country will face a long and painful reckoning with its divisions. But if he wins, the consequences could be far more severe. Democracy itself could be at risk, both in the US and across the world. From global security alliances like NATO to the political stability of key US allies like the UK, a second Trump presidency would send shockwaves far and wide.
One of the most concerning aspects of a Trump victory is the possibility of Project 2025 coming to fruition. This ambitious plan seeks to radically overhaul the US government by concentrating power in the executive branch, allowing Trump to reshape the civil service and extend control over federal institutions. With Project 2025 on the horizon, America could see a further erosion of democratic checks and balances, with significant consequences for both the US and its allies (BBC News, 2024).
For now, we’ll leave it here—but a future instalment of the Divided States series will explore Project 2025 in more depth, and how its implementation could reshape America’s political future and indeed, the global order.
References
BBC News (2024) 'Trump Team Accuses Labour of Political Meddling in US Elections,' [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdjej417009o [Accessed 24 Oct. 2024].
Brown, A. (2023) *The Authoritarian Playbook*, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Carter, L. (2024) *Roe v. Wade and the Future of Reproductive Rights*, New York: Penguin Books.
Foster, J. (2024) 'How Trump Could Reshape Global Security,' *International Affairs Journal*, 45(2), pp. 34-45.
Johnson, D. (2024) 'Russia and the US: The Fallout of NATO’s Collapse,' *The Guardian*, October 2024.
Miller, J. (2024) 'Trump and NATO: A Rocky Relationship,' *The New Yorker*, August 2024.
Smith, G. (2024) 'What Project 2025 Means for the World,' *Foreign Affairs*, October 2024.
Stevens, R. (2024) 'Trump and the End of Term Limits?' *Politico*, October 2024.
White, C. (2024) 'Populism and Authoritarianism: A Global Trend?' *The Economist*, July 2024.