Divided States, Part 1
What Comes Next If Trump Loses?
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is scheduled to take place in early November. Once all the votes have been counted (and probably re-counted), we might end up with a familiar scenario, where Donald Trump loses and we face denials from Trump and his base, accusations of another stolen election, and the consequential fallout. But this time, what comes next may not resemble the chaotic yet ultimately brief flashpoint of January 6, 2021. That day marked the first storming of the U.S. Capitol since the 19th century, but it may pale in comparison to the fallout from Trump’s potential defeat in 2024.
America is not just divided by political allegiance; it’s fractured in ways that transcend party lines and seep into the foundations of its society. The discontentment and rage on the right have deepened since Trump’s last defeat, fertilized by conspiracy theories, distrust in institutions, and a conviction that the country no longer belongs to ‘true Americans’ (Smith, 2022). As we sit here, across the Atlantic, sipping tea on Plague Island, our view of this deepening chasm in the U.S. reveals something hauntingly familiar: division, decline, and disillusionment.
The First Shockwave: Immediate Fallout
If Trump loses the coming election, it’s not just the political class that will reel; it’s the country’s entire social fabric. For millions of Americans, another loss for Trump won’t just be the rejection of a candidate; it will feel like a repudiation of their identity, values, and worldview (Miller, 2022). Unlike 2020, when the assault on the Capitol seemed to be a spontaneous explosion of anger, what comes next may be far more organized and deliberate. The militia movements scattered across the U.S. are no longer on the fringes—they’ve become a significant force in right-wing political circles (Jones, 2023).
Trump has spent years planting seeds of doubt about election integrity, and those seeds are ready to bear bitter fruit. His supporters have been primed to reject any result other than victory. If he loses, they will feel, as they’ve been told repeatedly, that the system has been rigged against them. This time, it won’t just be a protest. It may be an insurrection by design, carried out by a loose but dangerous coalition of far-right groups who no longer see themselves as bound by the principles of democracy.
Fractures in the Republican Party
A Trump loss doesn’t just spell chaos in the streets; it could also lead to the splintering of the Republican Party. The GOP, long divided between Trump’s base and more traditional conservatives, could fracture beyond repair. Trump loyalists have shown they’re willing to go to extreme lengths to defend their leader, while more moderate Republicans have quietly distanced themselves from the rhetoric but not from the power it brings (Williams, 2023).
What happens to the GOP post-Trump will determine the future of American conservatism. Does the party evolve into a populist, nationalist movement completely unmoored from traditional conservative values? Or does it try to reclaim its roots and purge the influence of Trumpism? The internal battles will be vicious, and the party may not survive as a single entity.
The Role of Disinformation: Elon Musk, X, and the Spread of False Narratives
The power of disinformation in this next phase cannot be overstated. America’s post-truth reality has allowed conspiracy theories to thrive, and the battle for control over the public narrative will be more intense than ever. Trump’s messaging will almost certainly focus on claims of a stolen election—claims that will be amplified across right-wing media channels and social media networks. This time, the dynamics of disinformation are even more troubling, given the role of Elon Musk and his control of X (formerly Twitter) (Baker, 2023).
Under Musk’s leadership, X has evolved into a platform where misinformation, conspiracy theories, and far-right ideologies are allowed to flourish unchecked. Musk has openly courted right-wing figures, rolling back content moderation policies that were put in place after the 2020 election to prevent the spread of election-related disinformation. The re-platforming of previously banned accounts and the lax approach to hate speech have transformed X into a megaphone for the most extreme voices in American politics. This gives Trump and his base a potent tool to shape the narrative around his loss (Green, 2023).
Musk’s influence in this sphere is no small matter. X has long been a battleground for political discourse, but its current environment makes it a perfect breeding ground for disinformation campaigns. Trump’s supporters will seize this platform to push narratives of election fraud, bolstered by Musk’s vocal support of “free speech” as a cover for allowing harmful and misleading content to proliferate. With millions of users, many of whom follow Trump and his allies religiously, X could become ground zero for a mass disinformation campaign aimed at delegitimizing the election results.
This shift isn’t just about online discourse—it’s about real-world consequences. In 2021, social media platforms took action to curb the spread of disinformation following the Capitol riot, with Twitter permanently suspending Trump’s account and implementing stricter content rules. But in 2024, X, under Musk’s control, is moving in the opposite direction. By allowing disinformation to run rampant, Musk is enabling the spread of election fraud claims, which will fuel anger and distrust among Trump’s supporters.
Economic and Social Consequences
This is more than just politics. The divides within America are deeply economic and cultural. Rural and urban America are two different countries, and those differences are not just aesthetic. Economic disenfranchisement, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the erosion of social safety nets have left vast swathes of the U.S. feeling abandoned. Trump’s appeal has always been rooted in giving voice to these anxieties, but his loss could deepen that feeling of betrayal among his base (Smith, 2023).
Expect the rise of secessionist rhetoric. In parts of rural America, particularly in states like Texas and parts of the Midwest, the idea of breaking away from the federal government will become more than just a fringe idea—it will gain mainstream attention. Political violence could become normalized, not just in isolated incidents but in long-term movements aimed at destabilizing the federal system. This, coupled with ongoing economic inequality and racial tensions, creates a perfect storm for a country that is on the edge of an existential crisis.
The Global View: What It Means for Us on Plague Island
As America teeters on the brink, we on Plague Island should pay very close attention. What happens in the U.S. doesn’t stay in the U.S. The shockwaves of American instability reach far across the Atlantic and beyond. The crisis of a superpower has global repercussions, and if democracy crumbles there, the rest of the world will be left scrambling to pick up the pieces.
Brexit was our own dry run for this kind of populist-fuelled rage. We’ve seen our own country fractured by disinformation, nationalism, and a government more interested in culture wars than substantive progress. The similarities between the U.S. and the UK have grown starker in the past decade, and as we look at the cracks in our own democracy, it’s hard not to see reflections of the chaos across the pond.
We, too, have been grappling with economic insecurity, loss of national identity, and a deepening chasm between the political elite and the public. As we watch America struggle to hold itself together in the aftermath of a Trump loss, we should be asking ourselves tough questions: How long before we face our own reckoning? How far are we from our own crisis of democracy? The same forces tearing at the fabric of American society are at work here, eroding our institutions, sowing distrust, and fostering division.
What Comes Next?
If Trump loses, the U.S. will enter a period of profound instability. The consequences will ripple through its politics, society, and economy, but it won’t end at its borders. For now, we on Plague Island sit watching from afar, but we should take no comfort in that distance.
The divided states of America may just be a preview of what’s to come for the rest of us. The next chapter in this story is unwritten, but the opening lines are already being scrawled across the pages of history, and they echo eerily across our own shores.
Read next: Divided States, Part 2: What Comes Next If Trump Wins?
References
Baker, A., 2023. Misinformation Machines: Social Media and the Future of Democracy. Cambridge: Political Analysis Publishing.
Green, R., 2023. Fractured America: The Struggle for the Republican Party. London: International Political Studies.
Jones, L., 2023. Post-Truth Politics and the Rise of Militant Movements. Cambridge: Global Governance Review.
Miller, K., 2022. The Economic Divide in Trump’s America. New York: Academic Press.
Smith, J., 2022. Conspiracy Theories and Political Violence in the 21st Century. London: Routledge.
Williams, C., 2023. Splintered Politics: The Future of American Conservatism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.